We know supply chain updates don’t typically top anyone’s reading list, but if branded merchandise plays a role in your business, this one’s worth your attention. This isn’t meant to cause alarm. It’s meant to help you stay ahead.
Terry McGuire, Senior Vice President, Supplier Relations
Last week, our SVP of Supplier Relations, Terry McGuire, hosted a town hall with our sales team to share what’s going on behind the scenes with tariffs, inventory shifts, and sourcing changes. With over 25 years of experience navigating supply chain complexities, Terry brings a grounded, informed perspective. We’ve been getting a lot of questions from clients, so we wanted to pass along what we’re seeing and hearing across the industry.
What’s Happening Behind the Scenes
Here’s what we know as of today:
- Tariffs on goods from China jumped to 145% in early April. For most other countries, a 10% tariff is in effect during the current 90-day pause, except for Canada and Mexico, where a 25% tariff applies (excluding USMCA-compliant goods).
- Many suppliers immediately paused or canceled new orders from China, hoping the rate drops before they resume shipping. Keep in mind, the tariff is applied based on the rate in effect on the day goods pass through U.S. Customs.
- According to global logistics firm Flexport, approximately 50% of shipments from China were recently canceled. The Port of Los Angeles is also seeing a 35% decline in bookings for the week of May 5th, based on data from their port planning tool.
- Production is shifting to other regions like Vietnam, India, and Mexico, but these regions don’t yet have the same infrastructure, scale, or capacity as China, meaning the transition takes time and may not fully meet demand in the near term.
- In the meantime, product availability is tightening, and costs are starting to rise.
“Timing isn’t everything, but when it comes to supply chain, it’s most things.” – Terry McGuire, HALO SVP of Supplier Relations
What We’re Seeing Right Now
Here’s what’s changing in real time:
- Pricing pressure is real. Most suppliers expect price increases over the next 30 – 45 days, if not sooner.
- Lead times are less predictable. Even in-stock items may take longer due to port delays and shifts in sourcing. While some countries may be geographically closer, factories outside China often face longer production timelines, limited infrastructure, and fewer direct shipping routes — all of which can delay delivery.
- Pre-tariff inventory is running low and restocks will likely cost more and take longer to arrive. Every day we’re not shipping from China adds to the gap in supply.
“It’s worth noting that even U.S. based suppliers are feeling the effects of the global supply chain disruptions, as many rely on imported materials, so the ripple effects are being felt everywhere,” Terry McGuire, HALO SVP of Supplier Relations
What HALO Is Doing
We’re not just watching this unfold—we’re working closely with our supplier network to stay ahead:
- We’re securing priority inventory through the end of the year for high-demand items.
- We’re diversifying sourcing in lower-tariff regions like Vietnam, India, and Mexico.
- We’ve stocked our distribution centers with HALO-priority inventory for our clients.
- We’re in daily (and nightly) communication with over 500 supplier partners to monitor changes daily and move quickly when needed.
We’re using every tool at our disposal—relationships, data, and scale—to protect your brand plans as much as possible.
What You Can Do Right Now
Again, this isn’t about panic. It’s about smart planning.
Here are a few things you can do now to stay ahead:
- Lock in Q3/Q4 orders early. If you know you’ll need something, don’t wait. While we joke about “Christmas in July,” it might not be a bad thing to consider for this year.
- Confirm upcoming summer campaigns or events. Lock in details now—timing, budgets, and quantities—so your HALO AE can help secure product before availability becomes an issue.
- Add some buffer to your timelines. It’s better to be a little early than completely stuck.
- Be open to alternatives. Ask your HALO AE about building in pre-approved backup options during quoting so you’re ready with a second choice if availability becomes an issue.
This isn’t just about being prepared—it’s about minimizing the impact of changes already moving through the supply chain.
“Even if tariffs dropped today, there would still be a 45-day delay before goods are manufactured and shipped, and likely 60 days before they hit supplier shelves and are available for our clients.” – Terry McGuire, HALO SVP of Supplier Relations
Final Thoughts
We’ve navigated disruption before, and we will again. Our team is staying closely connected to the data, our supplier partners, and our clients to help you move forward with confidence.
While the current focus is on navigating rising costs and inventory fluctuations, we’re also looking ahead. What if tariffs come down? If rates return to 2024 levels, HALO will work aggressively with our key suppliers to reduce pricing for our clients. Prices often rise like a rocket and fall like a feather—but that adage doesn’t apply to HALO. Our market leadership gives us the leverage to deliver value back to clients as quickly as possible.
If you have questions, or just want to talk through what’s next, we’re here. Reach out to your HALO Account Executive and let’s build a plan that protects your brand, your budget, and your timeline.
Let’s stay ahead—together.